Exploring the Regnum Economy - Potential for Fort Wars

[meldarion]

I think that some of the ideas in this thread have some merit, however I would like to address one of the ideas - namely the economy one.

Evaluating the RO Economy

I have taken the data from the RO official site here and it is the top 30 clans by rank of wealth. This gives an good average view of the Regnum economy state.

I have taken the three realms individually, and produced the following model:


There is only one made-up measure in this model and that is GPP (Gold Per Player). As there is no sensible way to measure player wealth, the GPP offers a good average measure of the wealth of the average player in each realm.

To start the explanation, it would be best to have the model linked above in view as I reference it frequently.

The idea that I am exploring is to apply a change to global realm prices. That is, once an event is triggered (fort is gained/lost), there is an effect on the prices of the realm that gained and the realm that lost the fort.

The first column "% change" refers to the change in percentage to the economic value index of that realm. The value index is only relevant when there is change associated with it, so in our case (the first set of numbers) we have a change of +15%. We are showing all realms side by side, so as to get a picture the effect of +15% for EACH realm. Consider them independent results.

We can see that for Alsius, a +15% change would eventually cause every players' GPP to rise by 195,192.60. However, it means that immediately the inflation is 13.04% for that realm. That is to say, the realm (as a whole) will eventually reach the increased amount, but for them to get there, they need to start climbing right away. Thats inflation in a nutshell.

The Price Index is the important column. The price index will be 86.96 for Alsius. Since the Price Index is based on 100 gold (hence it can be expressed as a percentage, but it is easy to get confused what the percentage means), we can easily determine the added value of the "% change" that was caused.

The Price Index of 86.96 means that given 100 gold coins now, you can buy 86.96 gold coins before the fort was taken. That means that the intrinsic value of the gold coin has appreciated because the fort was taken.

What does this mean for the Money Multiplier? Well - this is an awesome result! - Since the Money Multiplier is the same as the "% change", it is really easy to predict by how much the realm is going to increase, fueled by the increase in GPP. Since the Inflation is LESS THAN the Money Multiplier, it means that the increase in realm wealth will never spiral out of control.

Assume an unlikely scenario that one realm manages to capture and hold ALL of the forts for a long time (days, weeks, months). The identity of Inflation < Money Multiplier means that for every +15% of wealth that the realm gets from holding the forts (by decreased purchase prices), it will only grow by +13.04%. Over time, that means that every purchase (selling & buying goods, repair, etc) will lose 1.96% from the value, slowly pushing prices up and stopping the growth factor.

This, in essence, removes the horrible scenario that could occur if a realm continuously increased their wealth by a positive growth. (If Inflation > Money Multiplier)

How do prices get manipulated?

Well - prices are subject to the "% change" rule, effective immediately. So a +15% change to wealth, means that prices for purchase need to decrease by 7.5% (buy goods cheaper) and prices for sale need to increase by 7.5% (sell loot more expensively), giving an average change in wealth equal to the change in "% change".

How does this all work in practice?

Well, we have 3 realms & 9 forts. What needs to be done is this:

• Make base prices based on 3 forts
• Each additional fort captured represents a +% to the realm growth
• Each fort lost represents a -% for the realm

Lets take a real example. In Syrtis you can buy a Dareh staff for 31500 gold.
Now, we need to change that to reflect the 3 forts, assuming a fort is worth 1% growth and a castle is worth 2% growth. (The entire world is growing at 12% that way)

That means that for the Dareh staff to be worth 31500 gold, it needs 2 forts and a castle captured. So that means a baseline growth of 4%. In the RO Economy View link above, 5% growth amounted to 4.76% inflation, so doing a quick calculation, 4% growth means a 3.85% inflation. So we need to calculate the price of the staff for the baseline. The baseline cost is 100%-3.85% = 96.25%. However, we take half to sell and half to buy to make it a balanced wealth change. Which in gold coins is: 31500 x 98.075% = 30,894.23 (or 30,894 to nearest gold coin).

So, when Syrtis has lost ALL of its forts & castles, the amount you can sell this staff to a merchant for would be 30894, instead of 31500. Consequentially, you also buy it for 32107 gold coins, instead of the 31500.

So this means that items become cheaper to sell, and more expensive to buy if you have lost forts. Conversely, items become cheaper to buy and more expensive to sell if you have gained forts.

I believe that this is some empirical evidence that the Regnum Economy is able to support such a change. The numbers & MS Excel worksheet I can provide if it is requested. The numbers show that a 4% decrease in wealth does not do great harm to the realm, but is enough to make it worthwhile getting your forts back.

I would love to hear your comments & views on this analysis!

Meldarion
Member of Clan Inquisition - www.claninquisition.org

[Ertial]

Nice idea!
But isn't the difference a bit too low? I mean, 600 gold isn't much. I should increase how much each fort or castle worth is. But inflation would definitely add a reason for forts to capture.
But I think there should also be another thing added. If for example there are billions of aquantis skins sold the price will drop, since there are more than enough.

[Bully]

I think as a whole the economics fluctuations is a great idea. I'm not sure it needs to be that complicated though. Not all players are economists. I understand what you're saying but remember there are a lot of younger people playing too. I definately think there would be a lot more interest in fort wars. Maybe NGD could comment on the possibilities of some economic system in the future?

[padreigh]

Impressed by your math and idea ... but i think other things come first. If you get 30k and more for a quest its nonsense to calc so much things only to lessen some item by .6k.

[chuckclose1]

i aggree with several things said by everyone and didagree that the system will be worth the effort

first like someone said most people playing havent even graduated high school yet they lack the education that some of us have( because of there age not intelegence). i feel this system would be too hard to understand for most of them

this system would tak so much work on ngd part to impliment such things it wouldn't be worth doing for such small values

i also feel you take your ideas from real life econemy , which has so many more factors making values change then just the fact of captureing a fort or castle only to loose it as soon as 2 mins later in some cases.

how ever much i like the idea i disagree that it would work in the manner that u have presented it.

[Malich]

Originally Posted by chuckclose1

i feel this system would be too hard to understand for most of them

They don't really need to know. Just say "If your realm has captured alot of forts/castles, you get better deals from merchants.
I agree that the idea would be difficult to implement, though.
Maybe add it to the list of things to be implemented in the far future?