Statistics on Lucky Boxes

Zordak · 01-09-2009, 07:55 PM

Hi,

Playing with the platinum lucky boxes on Amun, I did not succeed in generating an Elven Staff - after about 30 intents (on a lvl50 mage).
Now i wonder how the chances at generating one are. 1st impression would be that theres 5 staff types possibly resulting in lvl50 staffs (royal, scarab, twin viper, blood, elven), so 20% of the staffs should be elven staffs.
In fact 50% of what i generated were royal, another 40% twin viper, the rest scarab and 1 blood staff. No elven staff at all.
Of course, my sample is still pretty small, though the probability of not generating an elven staff (from 5 staff types -> 80%) after 30 attempts is ~0.1%. Hence there must be other factors affecting the item generation.

It might be necessary to count every staff configuration ending up in a lvl50 staff possibility for each staff type for instance (like royal staff: soft wood, hardened wood, iron, soft wood magical, hardened wood magical, ..., soft wood epic, etc.). This would give a different weight to the staff types, however it is hardly possible to get the information.

Anyone got an idea how to solve this? I'm just trying to figure out if its even worth to continue the attempts of generating an elven staff.....obviously for mages looking for a fast staff boxes arent an option at the moment.

Z.

Vroek · 01-09-2009, 09:18 PM

I just logged on and got one on my first attempt

edit: 2/4
now 2/8

Zordak · 01-09-2009, 10:04 PM

Can you confirm that you tried on a lvl50 character? Cos to chars of different lvls different staff selection rules might apply.
I keept going a little, staff 37 gave me an elven one, but no more till staff 45.
Definitely not 25% here, rather 2.5%.

Z.

Vroek · 01-09-2009, 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zordak

Can you confirm that you tried on a lvl50 character? Cos to chars of different lvls different staff selection rules might apply.
I keept going a little, staff 37 gave me an elven one, but no more till staff 45.
Definitely not 25% here, rather 2.5%.

Z.

Yes lvl 50
2/12

I rather want a dareh staff
with casting speed dammit!

Zordak · 01-09-2009, 10:13 PM

im at 3/50, but ill stop now. i have doubts i'll catch up to 20%.
Thanks for trying, I dont think ill try to get a fast staff on ra...

Z.

Blaine · 01-10-2009, 01:23 PM

It might have something to do with the base level of the staff (the level which requires the most ordinary staff of this type without any bonuses), then you would get mostly staffs of that type, which has the base level nearest to your level and the more difference between your level and staff's base level, the lower chance to get it.
Not sure about it, it's my theory.

makarios68 · 01-10-2009, 02:09 PM

I posted this in another thread, and again here because i think the points are really important:

Someone in my clan recently pointed out to me that when you reach lvl 50 there is no reason to buy xym.

The only exceptions to this are maybe the repair hammer scrolls, and the new treasure boxes.

Therefore, I think it is very much in NGD's interest to improve these boxes, as it is one few things that a lvl 50 char would buy.

These boxes should not be as luck-based as they are - maybe player input into the item.

Items should always give a universally useful bonus - eg, inteligence, constitution, concentration, mana and health - no stregnth items for archers and dex for warriors!

They should not be as expensive as they are - about half the cost IMO.

There should be refunds for useless stuff already bought - there are many unhappy customers, despite Chilko's comment to the contrary. I don't think it is a good idea to have paying customers feeling cheated.

Making these improvements will give players with lvl 50 chars a reason to buy xym. This means happy customers and $$ for NGD.

We are not asking for items that will overpower us - merely to get the good items available from mobs and bosses, but without the grind!

Mellion · 01-10-2009, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by makarios68

I posted this in another thread, and again here because

I am sitting on 77000 xims on Ra with 3 lvl 50 chars. As long as wudys changes are not implemented, simply invest your money somewhere else.

Mattdoesrock · 01-10-2009, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by makarios68

Items should always give a universally useful bonus - eg, inteligence, constitution, concentration, mana and health - no stregnth items for archers and dex for warriors!

I absolutely agree!

What were NGD thinking they made these items????

And again, why allow them to be obtained from a lucky box?

There aren't the only problems.. There's not being able to get a lvl 50, 30 med (?) bow.. Uthgars can recieve helmets.. The list goes on

I know I for one will not be buying any more Xim until this has been sorted out.

And for the record, I bought I imagine.. Around... 10 / 15 (weapon) boxes on my lvl 50 lock on Amun.. None of which were Elven staves..

Mellion · 01-10-2009, 08:59 PM

From my tests on Amun I can say about 1/20 gives reasonably items. The rest (19/20) is equal to special or worse till useless.

01-09-2009, 07:55 PM	#1
Zordak Master Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 451	Statistics on Lucky Boxes Hi, Playing with the platinum lucky boxes on Amun, I did not succeed in generating an Elven Staff - after about 30 intents (on a lvl50 mage). Now i wonder how the chances at generating one are. 1st impression would be that theres 5 staff types possibly resulting in lvl50 staffs (royal, scarab, twin viper, blood, elven), so 20% of the staffs should be elven staffs. In fact 50% of what i generated were royal, another 40% twin viper, the rest scarab and 1 blood staff. No elven staff at all. Of course, my sample is still pretty small, though the probability of not generating an elven staff (from 5 staff types -> 80%) after 30 attempts is ~0.1%. Hence there must be other factors affecting the item generation. It might be necessary to count every staff configuration ending up in a lvl50 staff possibility for each staff type for instance (like royal staff: soft wood, hardened wood, iron, soft wood magical, hardened wood magical, ..., soft wood epic, etc.). This would give a different weight to the staff types, however it is hardly possible to get the information. Anyone got an idea how to solve this? I'm just trying to figure out if its even worth to continue the attempts of generating an elven staff.....obviously for mages looking for a fast staff boxes arent an option at the moment. Z. __________________ Based on facts, as I choose to see them.

01-09-2009, 09:18 PM	#2
Vroek Banned Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 890	I just logged on and got one on my first attempt edit: 2/4 now 2/8 Last edited by Vroek; 01-09-2009 at 09:39 PM.

01-09-2009, 10:04 PM	#3
Zordak Master Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 451	Can you confirm that you tried on a lvl50 character? Cos to chars of different lvls different staff selection rules might apply. I keept going a little, staff 37 gave me an elven one, but no more till staff 45. Definitely not 25% here, rather 2.5%. Z. __________________ Based on facts, as I choose to see them.

01-09-2009, 10:13 PM	#5
Zordak Master Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 451	im at 3/50, but ill stop now. i have doubts i'll catch up to 20%. Thanks for trying, I dont think ill try to get a fast staff on ra... Z. __________________ Based on facts, as I choose to see them.

01-10-2009, 01:23 PM	#6
Blaine Initiate Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Praha, Prague, Prag, Praga Posts: 153	It might have something to do with the base level of the staff (the level which requires the most ordinary staff of this type without any bonuses), then you would get mostly staffs of that type, which has the base level nearest to your level and the more difference between your level and staff's base level, the lower chance to get it. Not sure about it, it's my theory. __________________ Blaine (barbarian), Lyra (hunter), Naku (warlock), Bivoj (knight), Yu Niu (conjurer), Radegast (marksman) <:::(°_°) ::::::::::::\|\|===) \(°l°)/ (===\|\|::::::::::::(°_°):::>

01-10-2009, 02:09 PM	#7
makarios68 Count Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: England Posts: 1,300	I posted this in another thread, and again here because i think the points are really important: Someone in my clan recently pointed out to me that when you reach lvl 50 there is no reason to buy xym. The only exceptions to this are maybe the repair hammer scrolls, and the new treasure boxes. Therefore, I think it is very much in NGD's interest to improve these boxes, as it is one few things that a lvl 50 char would buy. These boxes should not be as luck-based as they are - maybe player input into the item. Items should always give a universally useful bonus - eg, inteligence, constitution, concentration, mana and health - no stregnth items for archers and dex for warriors! They should not be as expensive as they are - about half the cost IMO. There should be refunds for useless stuff already bought - there are many unhappy customers, despite Chilko's comment to the contrary. I don't think it is a good idea to have paying customers feeling cheated. Making these improvements will give players with lvl 50 chars a reason to buy xym. This means happy customers and $$ for NGD. We are not asking for items that will overpower us - merely to get the good items available from mobs and bosses, but without the grind!

01-10-2009, 08:59 PM	#10
Mellion Banned Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Germany Posts: 288	From my tests on Amun I can say about 1/20 gives reasonably items. The rest (19/20) is equal to special or worse till useless.