Statistics on Lucky Boxes

[Zordak]

Hi,

Playing with the platinum lucky boxes on Amun, I did not succeed in generating an Elven Staff - after about 30 intents (on a lvl50 mage).
Now i wonder how the chances at generating one are. 1st impression would be that theres 5 staff types possibly resulting in lvl50 staffs (royal, scarab, twin viper, blood, elven), so 20% of the staffs should be elven staffs.
In fact 50% of what i generated were royal, another 40% twin viper, the rest scarab and 1 blood staff. No elven staff at all.
Of course, my sample is still pretty small, though the probability of not generating an elven staff (from 5 staff types -> 80%) after 30 attempts is ~0.1%. Hence there must be other factors affecting the item generation.

It might be necessary to count every staff configuration ending up in a lvl50 staff possibility for each staff type for instance (like royal staff: soft wood, hardened wood, iron, soft wood magical, hardened wood magical, ..., soft wood epic, etc.). This would give a different weight to the staff types, however it is hardly possible to get the information.

Anyone got an idea how to solve this? I'm just trying to figure out if its even worth to continue the attempts of generating an elven staff.....obviously for mages looking for a fast staff boxes arent an option at the moment.

Z.

[Vroek]

I just logged on and got one on my first attempt

edit: 2/4
now 2/8

[Zordak]

Can you confirm that you tried on a lvl50 character? Cos to chars of different lvls different staff selection rules might apply.
I keept going a little, staff 37 gave me an elven one, but no more till staff 45.
Definitely not 25% here, rather 2.5%.

Z.

[Vroek]

Originally Posted by Zordak

Can you confirm that you tried on a lvl50 character? Cos to chars of different lvls different staff selection rules might apply.
I keept going a little, staff 37 gave me an elven one, but no more till staff 45.
Definitely not 25% here, rather 2.5%.

Z.

Yes lvl 50
2/12

I rather want a dareh staff
with casting speed dammit!

[Zordak]

im at 3/50, but ill stop now. i have doubts i'll catch up to 20%.
Thanks for trying, I dont think ill try to get a fast staff on ra...

Z.

[Blaine]

It might have something to do with the base level of the staff (the level which requires the most ordinary staff of this type without any bonuses), then you would get mostly staffs of that type, which has the base level nearest to your level and the more difference between your level and staff's base level, the lower chance to get it.
Not sure about it, it's my theory.