Statistics on Lucky Boxes

Zordak · 01-09-2009, 07:55 PM

Hi,

Playing with the platinum lucky boxes on Amun, I did not succeed in generating an Elven Staff - after about 30 intents (on a lvl50 mage).
Now i wonder how the chances at generating one are. 1st impression would be that theres 5 staff types possibly resulting in lvl50 staffs (royal, scarab, twin viper, blood, elven), so 20% of the staffs should be elven staffs.
In fact 50% of what i generated were royal, another 40% twin viper, the rest scarab and 1 blood staff. No elven staff at all.
Of course, my sample is still pretty small, though the probability of not generating an elven staff (from 5 staff types -> 80%) after 30 attempts is ~0.1%. Hence there must be other factors affecting the item generation.

It might be necessary to count every staff configuration ending up in a lvl50 staff possibility for each staff type for instance (like royal staff: soft wood, hardened wood, iron, soft wood magical, hardened wood magical, ..., soft wood epic, etc.). This would give a different weight to the staff types, however it is hardly possible to get the information.

Anyone got an idea how to solve this? I'm just trying to figure out if its even worth to continue the attempts of generating an elven staff.....obviously for mages looking for a fast staff boxes arent an option at the moment.

Z.

01-09-2009, 07:55 PM	#1
Zordak Master Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 451	Statistics on Lucky Boxes Hi, Playing with the platinum lucky boxes on Amun, I did not succeed in generating an Elven Staff - after about 30 intents (on a lvl50 mage). Now i wonder how the chances at generating one are. 1st impression would be that theres 5 staff types possibly resulting in lvl50 staffs (royal, scarab, twin viper, blood, elven), so 20% of the staffs should be elven staffs. In fact 50% of what i generated were royal, another 40% twin viper, the rest scarab and 1 blood staff. No elven staff at all. Of course, my sample is still pretty small, though the probability of not generating an elven staff (from 5 staff types -> 80%) after 30 attempts is ~0.1%. Hence there must be other factors affecting the item generation. It might be necessary to count every staff configuration ending up in a lvl50 staff possibility for each staff type for instance (like royal staff: soft wood, hardened wood, iron, soft wood magical, hardened wood magical, ..., soft wood epic, etc.). This would give a different weight to the staff types, however it is hardly possible to get the information. Anyone got an idea how to solve this? I'm just trying to figure out if its even worth to continue the attempts of generating an elven staff.....obviously for mages looking for a fast staff boxes arent an option at the moment. Z. __________________ Based on facts, as I choose to see them.