Drop rate on level 50

[voyager_3]

Originally Posted by Necrovarus

Ok, let's just put it this way. It's not always 1.5% chance. Besides, probability is taught in the first level of secondary school here

Oh, well... a few words on basic of probability.
If probability of an event (eg. looting an item) is 1.5%, it doesn't mean that the event occurs every 66.667 independent tries (eg. every 67 mobs killed). For example there can happen series of 120 independent tries without occuring the event or series of 50 tries with two events. On average, ie. when number of tries goes to infinity, the event occurs every 66.667 tries. Note: please, don't mix up result of single try with an average result.

[Arafails]

Originally Posted by voyager_3

Oh, well... a few words on basic of probability.
If probability of an event (eg. looting an item) is 1.5%, it doesn't mean that the event occurs every 66.667 independent tries (eg. every 67 mobs killed). For example there can happen series of 120 independent tries without occuring the event or series of 50 tries with two events. On average, ie. when number of tries goes to infinity, the event occurs every 66.667 tries. Note: please, don't mix up result of single try with an average result.

No even that's not right. What you're talking about is average return, and is an observational result, not a function.

1.5% chance means that for a single event, it's 197/3 times more likely that another outcome will result. You can't quantify it to to "it will happen this many times per this many events," average or not.

[_dracus_]

Well, all I know is that you can loot very decent things on Ghosts/Sabertooth in Alsius.

[ljrossi]

It should be change on some way.

I have almost 10.000.000 xp and played more than 3 years. and I have some chance that someone that play 3 month and has 4.000.000 xp.

The chance should be increase on month base or so... the old ones should have some motivation for keep searching drops or even to stay on the game.

[voyager_3]

Originally Posted by Arafails

No even that's not right. What you're talking about is average return, and is an observational result, not a function.

Strictly speaking, I'm talking about central moment of the 1st order. And it is a strictly defined function.
"Average" is just a colloquial language - I don't want to use mathematical language, because I don't want to scare people.

Originally Posted by Arafails

1.5% chance means that for a single event, it's 197/3 times more likely that another outcome will result.

Yes. So? What's your point?

Originally Posted by Arafails

You can't quantify it to to "it will happen this many times per this many events," average or not.

I can quantifiy it to "when you perform infinite number of tries, then number of successes will be 3 per 200 tries".

[Arafails]

Originally Posted by voyager_3

Strictly speaking, I'm talking about central moment of the 1st order. And it is a strictly defined function.
"Average" is just a colloquial language - I don't want to use mathematical language, because I don't want to scare people.

Alright, but it's an observational function, not a defining one.

Yes. So? What's your point?

There is no actual relationship between the chance in one event and the chance in the next.

I can quantifiy it to "when you perform infinite number of tries, then number of successes will be 3 per 200 tries".

But you can't quantify it to anything finite, or tangible, so what you just said means nothing. After all, either 3 or 200 to infinity? Why, it's undefined (or it could be nothing, but we're not sure).

[Saryad]

Originally Posted by DemonMonger

You are not forced to buy anything.....

This game has a great community and I am sure if you tell your friends you need something they will help you obtain it.

What realm are you in?
What items do you need?

Drop rates are fine....

THERE ISNT ENOUGH GOOD STUFF TO GO AROUND

[voyager_3]

Originally Posted by Arafails

Alright, but it's an observational function, not a defining one.

I think I don't get it. What is an observational function? And moments (including central moments) are strictly defined mathematical functions.

Originally Posted by Arafails

There is no actual relationship between the chance in one event and the chance in the next.

Yes, that's why I was talking about "independent tries" (review my previous posts, please).

Originally Posted by Arafails

But you can't quantify it to anything finite, or tangible, so what you just said means nothing. After all, either 3 or 200 to infinity? Why, it's undefined (or it could be nothing, but we're not sure).

Not 200, but killing like 20.000 mobs is quite well approximation of infinity. It's 2 orders of magnitude greater, so it allows to make a reasonable approximation (with like one percent point precision).

[Kianoni]

and for the record..
I have grinded my knight from 44 to almost 50 and haven't got a single usable drop, way to go NGD..
would be nice to check if someone hasn't been lucky for a long time and increase the probability until a drop is found, but hey it's NGD and they have to sell lucky boxes even at the cost of someones bad luck.
but the boxes are so expensive I have to win the national lottery first

[Ferente]

Cmon guys, this is the point, it's so excitant to expect a drop without knowing when and where..